the trust cycle vs the hype cycle

Most of have seen the Gartner hype cycle graph – shown here from wikipedia.  This got me thinking about what would happen if we tried to do the same thing – except with trusting our teammates to see how they compare.  I’m calling that the “trust cycle.”  While we do hear a lot about trust and team in agile, the only place I found using the term “trust cycle” wasDavid Weiss’ blog.

The beginning:

With the hype cycle, we start at basically zero.  We haven’t heard of something and we remain skeptical until we hear a little.  Then we get too excited.

With the trust cycle, I think you start more in the middle.  When you first meet someone, you don’t inherently trust or distrust them.  And at the beginning, people are pretty cautious and don’t do anything to change that.

The middle

With the hype cycle, the trigger for change is reality.  We go from inflated expectations to seeing what the technology can really do.  Since our expectations were too high, we fall harder.

With the the trust cycle, the trigger for change depends on whether it is positive or negative.  For positive trust (teambuilding), it just takes time.  Our trust level slowly goes up until we trust the person fully.  For negative, the jump happens much faster.  Either as a series of little things that make you suspicious (as shown in the graph) or as one big thing that causes a series drop.  Once we’ve dropped, trust either stays at rock bottom or gets re-earned very slowly.

The end

Both cycles stabilize at the end.  The hype cycle stabilizes at reality.  The trust cycle stabilizes at either trust or distrust.

Conclusion

This stickyminds article talks about how to build trust.  What do you think about the trust cycle?

live blogging – web 2.0 thursday keynotes

See table of contents for full list of web 2.0 expo posts

Last day of keynotes. I will clean up this post and add an index tonight.

Opening Remarks Brady Forrest (O’Reilly Media, Inc.), Sarah Milstein (TechWeb)

8/9 speakers today live in NY – shows web 2.0 has good NY presence (and that people who have to travel home prefer not to speak last day)

  • Her company doesn’t need an office. Work out of apartments, coffee shops, hotel lobbies and client sites.
  • No set business models. Can decide how want to make money.
  • What you are passionate about is always high on your job spec. Know what like to do and under what conditions (time, location, people). If you can design a job like that, it doesn’t feel like work. This makes you more competative and cost effective. This is the opposite of the 4 hour work week because assumes work is something is to be suffered.
  • She is a great speaker. Lots of passion and energy. Uses her whole body to make points and shows it is her essence.
What Computers Can Learn From Popsicle Sticks Nora Abousteit (BurdaStyle.com)
  • “The power of making”.
  • Key phrases: Passing on a skill. Sharing an experience. Reality escape. Original opem source movement. making tranformed he web. New companies exploded with tagging and web 2.0. Making grew online but decreased in the physical world.
  • Maker Faire got a slide – 100K makers gather
  • And i was wrong earlier in the week. Notes are rare but not unheard of at a keynote.
  • However, they were less obvious for this speaker.
  • New normal is personal tech progresses much faster thean enterprise tech
  • IT experts are no longer just in IT. Put training wheels on users.
  • Allow users to express how work best
  • Security inherently makes personal/enterprise tech different. Different risk levels and models. Goal: secure consumer tech
  • Google’s computing cost is such a driver that they put data centers near cheap electricity.
  • Cloud provides benefit if give ps you access to economy of scale.
  • IT needs to focus on differentiating company rather than logistics/operations
  • I haven’t heard the word crowdsourcing in a while.
  • Combining new tech and old/popular is more compelling because draws on what people liked the first time.
  • his project was having people recreate 15 seconds of video recreating the movie but funnier. He showed a minute of video. It was weird seeing the scene/characters change every 15 seconds butnot disconcerting.
  • Community sourcing because people working on shared goal. And ok that was lot of work for little rewarded.
  • First time online only production won an emmy
  • Starwarsuncut.com
Crowdsourcing the Brooklyn Museum Shelley Bernstein (Brooklyn Museum)
  • Improve user experience in the real world – signs, seats, readable labels, friendly floor staff, allow photos (not all shows, still trying to get artists to agree)
  • Visitors improve by leaving electonic comments to post on web and email to curators
  • Collection online with tagging and comments, give people cred for contributions
  • Book: Blink – split second decisions are powerful
  • Made activity online to see which like better and ask questions about it online.
  • Learned: some works universal, limiting time made complex images more favored, people liked images with labels/description/context
  • Common sense is implicit human intelligencd for navigating concrete everudat situations. We follow a ton of rules just to choose clothes and get to work without thinking about it.
  • The problem is using common sense for comolicated situations like politics.
  • We match “obvious” by choosing facts that match provided answer.
  • “everything is obvious once you know the answer”
  • Post hoc “explanations” are really stories. Tell us what happened, but not why. We are tempted to generalize the stories to make predictions.
  • In complex systems, history never really repeats in subtle but important ways.
  • policy, stategy and marketing can benefit from this now because we can measure social things.
  • Book: everything is obvious once you know the answer
How Are Brands Using Facebook Right Now? Michael Lazerow (Buddy Media)
  • Half of facebook users log in every day. More facebook likes/comments than google searches per month
  • 31% of all ad impressions in US are on Facebook – wow
  • What next: businesses reorg around people/connections
  • Must offer something of value – coupon, discount content, access

What’s next?

  • car as an app? Car knows where you are and when stop. [four square like]. [NYers don’t have cars. Phones are more universal here]
  • Ask friends for advice from dressing room before buy clothes

This is “social commerce”

A New Dimension for Google Maps Brian McClendon And Evan Parker (Google)
  • google Earth downloaded 1 bikkion times as of last week
  • Google maps – first map site to use ajax
  • On android, uses open gl to make 3d maps
  • Today announcing 3d maps on desktop without a plugin
  • Click try it now in bottom left corner
  • Now every line of frame in every frame drawn with gl
  • Smooth zooming
  • Labels fade in and out smoothly as zoom
  • See 3d skyscrapers as zoom in and move around – cool!
  • Showed zooming into collesium in rome – really does look like seeing from a plane
  • If keep zooming in switches to street view
  • Showed the High Line park in 3d
  • Works in chrome and firefox 8 beta. More coming
The Internet Baratunde Thurston (The Onion)
  • He wrote a book based on a stray thought that became a meme on twitter (#howtobeblack)
  • #livewriting let people watch while wrote the end and went better than expected
  • And nice to end with humor