For other QCon blog posts, see QCon live blog table of contents
- Not about speed, # transistors, density or per dollar
- Not coined by Moore
- Came from paper in 1965 – “Cramming more components onto integrated circuits:
- Term coined in 1971 when Carver Mead was talking to a journalist
- Moore also predicated home computers and computers onboard cars. Predicting 40 years out accurately is hard.
- Predicted lower costs
- In 1975, Moore updated the law to be a doubling of transistor density every two years. Meant to be a way of motivating engineers.
- An Intel executive said 18 months (vs 2 years) and that got quoted all over.
- Apps don’t get twice as fast.
- Hit memory wall
- Moore’s Law could add more caching, but that can only get so far
- Need Symmetric Multi Processing to increase throughput
- Speculative execution tried to pre-execute code and then became a security issue
- Cost matters. It’s not about increasing speed at any cost
End of Moore’s Law
- Samsung trying to 3 nanometer.
- Many unsolved problems
- A silicon atom is .2 nanometers.
- This is the end. Can’t physically make smaller. 3 nanometers is only 15 atoms across
- 7 nanometers might be the smallest size at a reasonable cost.
Beyond Moore’s Law – Quantum
- Quantum computer is surprisingly really
- Need large refrigerator. Must be close to absolute zero
- Problem domain is very limited
- Scale is tiny
- Don’t yet have ability to scale qbits
- Quantum computing may be relevant one day for the enterprise, but not any time soon
Beyond Moore’s Law – Specialized Compute
- Bitcoin mining
- GPGPU for ML/DL (machine learning/deep learning)
Beyond Moore’s Law – 3D
- Heat and cost problems
- Intel working on (Foveros)
- Not a way to get “back on track” for Moore’s law
Beyond Moore’s Law – 2.5D
- Smaller chiplets that are integrated on a larger die through silicon
- Can be different types and sizes
- Intel investing in this as well.
Beyond Moore’s Law – Alternate Tech
- Carbon nanotubes, phase change memory, etc
- History indicates won’t be able to compete on economics
- If/when break through, change industry
- Flash memory is only example of a break through like this
Beyond Moore’s Law – Wright’s Law
- Cost of manufacturing an aircraft dropped 10-15% which volume doubled
- Learning curve effect
- Possible chips will get cheaper again as product goes up.
This was great! He has amazing energy. It was a topic that was interesting and general interest. (I missed some of this because I was excited and communicating about being a Java Champion!). The state of the art and future is cool to hear about!